Weight the believable
Whose opinion to trust. Track record over confidence.
Weight opinions by who has actually done the thing. Repeatedly, with results. Not by who is loudest.
Everyone has a take. Most are borrowed confidence. No track record, no results. Just the shape of an expert.
Believable is someone who has done it more than once, and can explain how.
Weight those people heavily. Weight the rest near zero.
I stopped listening to the confident. I follow the proven.
The record tells you more than the pitch ever will.